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June 2011
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Rice Supplies Tightening in China May Increase Imports
June 2011
Rice supply in China, the world’s biggest grower and consumer, may decline after drought and floods damaged crops, potentially boosting inflation and increasing imports.
The early indica harvest may drop in some areas, said eight of 12 officials, traders and farmers surveyed by Bloomberg News in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces, the top producers of the variety which represents 17 percent of annual output. The crop may increase or be about the same as last year, said four of those surveyed from June 21 to June 25. Output of this type already dropped last year to the lowest level since 2003, according to the statistics bureau.
Lower production may bolster rice futures in China that jumped 29 percent in the past year and increase imports that doubled in the first five months. Surging food costs because of drought and floods helped lift inflation to 5.5 percent last month, the fastest pace in almost three years. The rate may quicken to more than 6 percent in June, adding pressure on the central bank to increase interest rates, some economists said.
“Competition for the early rice harvest will be quite intense given expectations for low output, likely driving up prices,” said Zhang Ting, an analyst at Cngrain.com, a researcher owned by China Grain Reserves Corp., which manages the grain reserves. “Output may at best match last year” even as the planted area probably gained, she said in an interview.
Faster Inflation
Rough-rice futures in Chicago climbed 48 percent in the past year, trailing a 75 percent jump in corn. The export price from Thailand, the biggest shipper, gained 8.6 percent. The lagging performance of rice may be “separating us from a food crisis.” Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the FAO, said in March.
Inflation in China, the second-biggest economy, has been driven by gains in meat, grain and vegetables. The cost of food, almost a third of the consumer price index, jumped 11.7 percent in May from a year earlier, boosted by surging pork prices. The price of packaged rice climbed 19 percent in the year through June 24, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
Rising prices in China may boost imports from Southeast Asia including Vietnam, Cngrain.com’s Zhang said. Purchases in the first five months doubled to almost 300,000 tons, with imports shipped from Vietnam surging, according to customs data. Shipments were 366,192 tons for all last year, data show.
Early indica rice on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange climbed to 2,661 yuan a ton on May 30, the highest level in more than three months, and closed at 2,596 yuan today. The procurement price for unhusked early rice on June 23 was 19 percent higher than a year ago, according to a Cngrain.com index.
Lakes Drained
The total rice harvest in China may gain 1 percent to 197.6 million metric tons in 2011 from last year, according to the grain information center. State grain reserves amount to 40 percent of annual consumption, Zhang Ping, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in March.
Central China experienced the driest three months on record in the lead up to May, draining the biggest lakes and reservoirs and cutting irrigation. Between March and May, seven provinces including Hunan and Jiangxi recorded 60 days without precipitation, delaying the transplanting of early season seedlings, the China Meteorological Administration said June 2.
The drought was followed by devastating floods, which damaged at least 338,000 hectares (835,216 acres) in Jiangxi and Hunan this month, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.
Harvest Delays
In Xiangyin county of northern Hunan, one of the areas worst affected by drought, output may plunge as much as 40 percent from last year, according to Chen Youguang, general manager of Zhiyou Rice Industry Co., which processes the grain. Low temperatures also damaged the seedlings, while excessive rain since June flooded some crops, he said.
“Many of these plants haven’t formed heads,” which should have been completed by now, Chen said, standing next to green paddies. The harvest may be delayed by half a month, he said.
The government will set a price floor of 102 yuan ($15.75) per 50 kilograms for early-indica rice this year, 9.7 percent higher than last year, the State Administration of Grain said in March. Farmers will likely demand between 110 yuan to 115 yuan, according to the traders surveyed.
In Zhuantou village, eastern Hunan, 60-year-old farmer Yang Dawen said the drought was the worst he has seen. In addition to the drought, floods this month wiped out some crops, he said in an interview June 22. “Maybe I’ll get half as much as last year” from the half acre planted with early rice, he said.
Fears Mount Over Another Crop Failure
June 2011
Dry weather across northern Europe has raised concerns among commodity traders of another potential crop failure, similar to last year’s devastating losses in Russia.
The price of the new crop of European milling wheat, traded in Paris, rose to a peak of €254.50 a tonne two weeks ago – exceeding its price in the wake of Russia’s export ban last year, which was imposed after a severe drought.
The European crop is significant because the continent is the world’s top producer of wheat and the second-largest exporter after the US.
Scattered showers in the past week have eased some fears. Together with an announcement from Russia that it would lift its export ban, raising the prospect of additional supplies, the rainfall has helped lower prices by 9 per cent to €231 a tonne on Wednesday.
Nonetheless, analysts and agronomists believe crops in parts of northern Europe have suffered irreparable damage, with yields in France, Europe’s largest producer, likely to drop by as much as 20 per cent.
Moreover, sowing of spring wheat in the US and Canada, two top producers of the high quality variety, is well behind the normal rate due to excessive rain, raising the prospect of farmers leaving fields unplanted.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation this week warned that agricultural commodity prices were likely to remain high and volatile.
“Earlier prospects for more comfortable supply situations and stable prices gave way to increasingly worrisome outlooks [due to weather problems] and to an escalation of international prices to levels not seen in decades,” it said
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Wheat Declines Most in a Week as Russia to End Grain-Export
May 2011
Wheat tumbled the most in a week after Russia, once the second-biggest exporter, said it will allow grain shipments to resume after a 10-month ban.
Russia won’t extend beyond July 1 its grain-export ban, implemented in August after the worst drought in 50 years slashed production, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said May 28. Wheat prices have gained 75 percent in the past year.
“The drop today is because of Russia,” said William Adams a fund manager at Resilience AG in Zurich. “This is a major development.” Russia being off the market last year caused shortages, he said.
Wheat futures for July delivery dropped 17.5 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $8.0225 a bushel by 1:15 p.m. London time on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price, which earlier fell 4.4 percent, was little changed for the month. Milling wheat for November delivery gained 0.8 percent to 240.75 euros ($346.51) on NYSE Liffe in Paris.
The price still may gain on declining stockpiles as dry weather in Western Europe and the U.S. southern Plains curbs production of winter wheat and as wet weather in northern states delays planting of spring varieties, Adams said.
“The market may be setting itself up for a bear trap because inventories are still quite low and we are not sure how much wheat Russia will put on the market,” Adams said.
Farmers worldwide will reap 667 million metric tons of wheat in 2011-2012, trailing demand of 669 million tons, the International Grains Council said May 26. The agency pared its production estimate from 672 million tons in April, cutting stockpiles to 185 million tons, the lowest since 2008-09.
Russian Plantings
Grain plantings in Russia climbed 10 percent to 24 million hectares (59 million acres) and the government has more than 6 million tons in reserves, according to First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov. Russia can export 2.5 million tons a month, said Arkady Zlochevsky, president of Russia’s Grain Union.
Russia will export 10 million tons of wheat in the 12 months ending June next year, up from 4 million tons in the current year, according to the USDA. That’s less than the 18.6 million tons sold a year earlier.
The quality of export grain in Russia needs to be clarified, said Wayne Gordon, an analyst from Rabobank International in Sydney.
“Whether the grain they’ve got in stocks is actually of the quality that can be exported is another debate,” he said.
Corn for July delivery gained 1.5 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $7.60 a bushel in Chicago, leaving prices up 0.5 percent this month. July-delivery soybeans gained 1 cent to $13.8075 a bushel and were set for a second monthly decline.